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Climate Investing Across Private Markets: A Return-Focused Perspective
Global investment in the energy transition has risen from $200 billion in 2004 to $1.8 trillion in 2023.1 This substantial growth has brought the climate2 investment landscape to an important inflection point, where it now offers investors a compelling market opportunity from both a scale and risk-return perspective.
More companies can deploy climate technologies and reduce emissions without sacrificing profitability, largely due to lower costs and improved functionality across a wide range of climate-related technologies including solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles (EVs). This expanding universe of attractive business models and more experienced general partners (GPs) are combining to present dynamic opportunities for investors across private markets strategies to participate in the climate market without foregoing investment discipline.
Below we examine the evolving climate investment ecosystem, explore how recent developments have generated positive support for the long-term growth potential for companies and investors within the overall climate segment, and consider ways allocators can fine-tune their portfolios to capitalize on this opportunity while optimizing risk-adjusted returns.
Climate solutions span a range of industries and private markets strategies
Reaching international, state, and corporate climate goals and emissions targets will require major investment and repositioning of many facets of the global economy. While the energy transition is bringing change across many sectors, one of the largest segments by capital investment is power and energy, specifically focused on building a renewable power infrastructure.3 Going forward, repositioning legacy assets will comprise a larger portion of the climate investment landscape and will impact sectors including transportation, agriculture, industrial production, and technology.
We believe the private equity value creation playbook is well-suited to support both the transition of legacy assets and the development of innovative new solutions. Investors are partnering with corporations and municipalities through a variety of decarbonization strategies to drive the operational improvements required to increase the efficiency of legacy assets and develop new technologies to spur state-of-the-art innovation.
Private markets strategies offering compelling climate-related investment opportunities include:
- Infrastructure, which continues to lead the massive investment in decarbonized energy, power, and transportation.
- Buyout investments in companies focused on decreasing climate emissions and enabling a low-carbon economy by reducing waste, managing resources, or creating more sustainable supply chains.
- Venture capital and growth equity investments funding new climate solutions across many different sectors and end-markets, including initiatives such as better energy management, carbon capture, and scaling the circular economy.
- Private credit, which can provide working capital for equipment manufacturing companies related to the energy transition and bridge financing for companies supporting the transition phase—such as renewable energy developers.
A more mature climate GP landscape has emerged
Over the last several years, many private markets managers focused on climate and energy transition have developed meaningful track records. Concurrently, climate-related investing has become an increasing portion in the portfolios of experienced venture capital, growth equity, buyout, and infrastructure managers, with many setting up dedicated climate and energy transition strategies. There is also a clear trend of infrastructure and energy GPs shifting their focus from legacy business models within conventional power, oil, and gas production, toward climate, energy transition, and sustainability-oriented investments. This pivot toward climate-related investing across a variety of GPs is primarily being propelled by capital markets demand drivers that support the potential for significant capital appreciation.
For investors, the result is a larger, more diverse, and better experienced GP landscape where investors can now implement a multi-manager investment strategy to create a return-driven private markets climate portfolio without sacrificing investment discipline. What was once a niche segment has been transformed into a robust private markets opportunity set with over 200 climate specialist GPs having distinct strategies across asset classes, market capitalizations, and geographies.4
Climate and energy transition specialist GP landscape
Source: HarbourVest proprietary market sizing estimates for closed-end, commingled private equity and infrastructure climate-focused funds with an OECD primary focus as of November 15, 2024. Bubble size represents approximate market size by capitalization. Analysis only includes GPs that have institutional quality offerings as determined by HarbourVest investment teams and excludes open-end funds, fund of funds, special purpose vehicles, and co-investment vehicles. Number of distinct GP fund strategies is based on the number of different strategies offered by a specific GP and not the number of individual funds offered by a GP.
Portfolio implementation and construction considerations
Given the dynamic and more mature state of the climate and energy transition landscape, more investors are actively allocating to the growing opportunity set. But optimizing how those allocations are made is equally important. The following considerations can potentially help investors build diversified portfolios that enhance their climate allocations and returns.
Climate's vast opportunity set is best captured through broad, cross-strategy investing
The climate opportunity spans private markets asset classes and climate-related business models are likely to continue merging across strategies. For example, growth equity, buyout, and infrastructure GPs alike are investing in EV charging platforms at different points of their development. As a result, investing in this market effectively requires deep, cross-strategy market coverage from sourcing and investment diligence to portfolio construction in an effort to limit blind spots, enhance market coverage, and improve risk-adjusted returns. To manage portfolio-level risk within a climate allocation, it is important for investors to diversify exposures across company sizes, geographies, business models, and end-markets as well as across technologies (e.g., wind, solar, batteries), demand drivers (e.g., power prices, development activity), and value creation strategies (e.g., M&A, organic growth).
Engaging a cross-functional team allows investors to effectively deploy capital at the intersection of private equity and infrastructure business models. We believe this approach can help uncover compelling risk-adjusted returns by avoiding early technology commercialization risk and potentially driving outperformance through superior execution of value creation plans. These segments are reflected in core-plus/value-add infrastructure and growth/buyout strategies. While historical performance is not always indicative of future results, it is notable that growth/buyout strategies are offering more upside potential than venture and value-add strategies are providing more downside protection than core infrastructure when using quartile ranges as a proxy for relative risk and return.5
Climate-focused net IRR by fund strategy (2013 - 2022 vintages)
Source: Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024. Includes closed-end, commingled private equity and infrastructure climate-focused funds with an OECD primary focus. Core-plus and value-add strategies and growth and buyout strategies are bucketed together as the line between these strategies is inconsistent. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Tap into deal flow from specialists and generalists across transaction types
We have seen strong climate deal flow from a mix of specialist and generalist managers. While the track record suggests highly specialized managers with sophisticated market knowledge and value creation tools outperform in the dynamic climate market, we also believe there is a strong co-investment deal flow and opportunity from more generalist managers. Comparing the performance of climate infrastructure specialist strategies to generalist infrastructure strategies, we see over 500 basis points of outperformance for top quartile specialist strategies. However, this outperformance entirely erodes for median performing funds, with generalist strategies achieving roughly equivalent performance relative to specialists.6
Investors should also consider diversifying their climate portfolios by transaction types ranging from primaries and co-investments to GP-led secondary transactions, as each provides distinct fee structures, income, and return realization that can help optimize portfolio returns. For example, investors can begin by committing on a primary basis to top-tier specialists while co-investing alongside specialist and generalist GPs with climate deal flow. Adding direct co-investments and GP-led secondary transactions allows investors to potentially reduce overall economics, enhance diversification, increase exposure to strategic objectives, and improve diligence and market coverage, while accessing market leading companies outside of the M&A process.
This diversified approach to constructing portfolios requires significant sourcing and underwriting resources along with teams that can provide global market coverage. Given the scarcity and uniqueness of certain portfolio companies in the climate and energy transition landscape, some of the leading deals cannot be accessed through typical M&A channels. Some of the largest private climate companies have grown through inside rounds and continuation vehicles as GPs seek to hold on to their market leading assets for longer given the significant value placed on talented management teams and actionable development pipelines to drive growth (“platform value”).
Don't forget the middle market
Investors able to access top tier middle-market funds and deals have been able to generate return alpha given both the structural nuances and the less competitive nature of the segment relative to large cap.7 Illustrating the importance of the middle market for climate investors specifically, over 90% of power assets in the US have an enterprise value below $500 million.8 And consistent with what we see in private markets more broadly, small and middle-market climate opportunities may benefit from a more fragmented opportunity set comprised of many more companies. This middle-market dynamic generally brings lower entry valuations and less competition relative to large cap offering investors opportunities for potential outperformance, as evidenced with top quartile, average, and median performance for funds below $3 billion exceeding that of funds over $3 billion.9
Unlike the large cap market, which relies heavily on IPOs, we believe the middle market offers greater exit optionality such as sales to strategic buyers or financial buyers across pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and other private equity investors, as well as partial financing-based exits such as secondary fund market transactions. Greater exit optionality has broadly materialized in better liquidity in the middle market compared to the large cap market10 and we believe these advantages will continue for the foreseeable future.
Evaluating the relative performance between large and middle-market funds in the climate landscape requires some adjustment given there have been less than a dozen climate funds over $3 billion and even fewer over $5 billion. Given the nascency of the climate segment, in the chart below we have broadened our standard large cap threshold of $5 billion and included any funds over $3 billion. However, the dataset below is useful in illustrating that the relationship between the middle market and excess return potential that exists more broadly in private markets is also present in the climate market with top quartile, average, and median performance for funds below $3 billion exceeding that of funds over $3 billion.
Climate-focused net IRR by fund strategy (2013 - 2022 vintages)
Source: Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024. Includes closed-end, commingled private equity and infrastructure climate-focused funds with an OECD primary focus. Middle-market analysis for the chart includes funds with a final fund size between $200 million and $3 billion and large cap includes funds with a final fund size over $3 billion. Funds below $200 million are excluded to limit any skew from non-institutional platforms and highlight performance potential of middle market compared to large cap. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Key takeaways
HarbourVest has been an early climate investor since the advent of Cleantech 1.0 in the early 2000s, when venture innovation was focused on initiatives such as novel biofuel technology and solar panel manufacturing. The experience gained both in those early days and as the market has grown and scaled has provided valuable insights that shape how we view climate investing going forward, including:
- Flexibility is necessary given the evolving market trends and technologies within the climate segment, but it is also crucial to back experienced investment talent that has differentiated market insights, a proven ability to invest into companies with sustainable competitive advantages, and strong management teams that can execute value creation strategies.
- It is particularly important in climate investing to focus underwriting on cash flow and capital availability given the potential for long commercialization timelines for many climate-related technologies.
- Diversification across managers, geographies, and different private markets strategies and transaction types is vital to creating a return-driven climate portfolio that can participate in the diverse opportunities evolving across cutting-edge technologies and more mature legacy industries.
- Optimizing a climate portfolio requires a disciplined and diversified transaction approach spanning co-investments, primaries, and secondary transactions to potentially enhance portfolio duration, income, and risk-adjusted returns.
- The climate-related middle-market segment represents a large and meaningful portion of the current climate opportunity set and is an important area of focus for investors as they build out a return-focused climate portfolio.
2024 was a pivotal year across the globe in terms of elections and potential change to climate policies and subsidies, but we believe the fundamentals of climate-related technologies and business models remain commercially viable without subsidies and should withstand the shorter-term consequences of changing administrations. While the most experienced players in the market are not inclined to make investments dependent upon government policies or subsidies that can be upended, these concerns reinforce the importance of creating diversified and flexible climate portfolios that can adapt to innovation within an ever-evolving landscape.
- Bloomberg NEF, Energy Transition Investment Trends 2024, January 30, 2024.
- Climate is defined broadly as investments in strategies and companies focused on renewable energy, industrial decarbonization, transitioning legacy assets and low or no carbon business models, circular economy investments, climate technologies, or other investments focused on the decarbonization of the economy and/or climate resiliency.
- Bloomberg NEF, Energy Transition Investment Trends 2024, January 30, 2024.
- HarbourVest proprietary market sizing estimates for closed-end, commingled private equity and infrastructure climate-focused funds with an OECD primary focus as of November 15, 2024. Bubble size represents approximate market size by capitalization. Analysis only includes GPs that have institutional quality offerings as determined by HarbourVest investment teams and excludes open-end funds, fund of funds, special purpose vehicles, and co-investment vehicles. Number of distinct GP fund strategies is based on the number of different strategies offered by a specific GP and not the number of individual funds offered by a GP.
- Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024. Includes closed-end, commingled private equity and infrastructure climate-focused funds with an OECD primary focus. Core-plus and value-add strategies and growth and buyout strategies are bucketed together as the line between these strategies is inconsistent. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024. Based on analysis comparing net IRR performance of specialist climate infrastructure funds (over 60% of strategy focused on climate and energy transition broadly) to generalist infrastructure funds between 2013-2022. Includes closed-end, commingled infrastructure funds with an OECD primary focus. Funds below $200 million and over $5 billion are excluded to focus on middle-market segment performance. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024. Based on analysis comparing net IRR performance of specialist climate infrastructure funds (over 60% of strategy focused on climate and energy transition broadly) to generalist infrastructure funds between 2013-2022. Includes closed-end, commingled infrastructure funds with an OECD primary focus. Funds below $200 million and over $5 billion are excluded to focus on middle-market segment performance. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- Based on analysis of EIA Form 861, which includes 13,500 power plants in the US, data as of December 31, 2023. Based on current market cost of capital assumptions.
- Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024. Includes closed-end, commingled private equity and infrastructure climate-focused funds with an OECD primary focus. Middle market includes funds with a final fund size between $200 million and $3 billion and large cap includes funds with a final fund size over $3 billion. Funds below $200 million are excluded to limit any skew from non-institutional platforms and highlight performance potential of middle market compared to large cap. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024, based on realizations for vintages 2017-2020 for closed-end, commingled infrastructure funds with an OECD primary focus. Middle market represents funds with a final fund size between $200 million and $5 billion. Large cap represents funds with a final fund size of over $5 billion. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience.
- Preqin and HarbourVest proprietary data as of June 30, 2024. All middle-market analysis includes closed-end, commingled funds with an OECD primary focus. Middle-market generalist infrastructure analysis is based on only infrastructure funds between $200 million and $5 billion, with large cap being over $5 billion. First quartile middle-market infrastructure funds have achieved 317 basis points of outperformance relative to large cap and median returns have outperformed by 20 basis points, but third quartile performance lags by more than 300 basis points, illustrating the wider dispersion and band of outcomes. HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, or experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
HarbourVest Partners, LLC (“HarbourVest”) is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This material is solely for informational purposes; the information should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information. The information is subject to change without notice and HarbourVest has no obligation to update you. There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of HarbourVest.
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