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Finding a potential Goldilocks effect in buyouts​

The potential of a diversified mid-market portfolio1

*Range reflects the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles.

Source: HarbourVest proprietary data set comprised of information aggregated from multiple data sources, including HarbourVest and third-party data providers. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, and not representative of any HarbourVest experience. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The Sortino ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted returns calculated as the expected return in excess of a minimum acceptable return (MAR) divided by downside deviation. Downside deviation is the volatility of returns below the minimum acceptable return (MAR).Fund size bin definitions: 2000-2003: Small $100M-$500M, Medium $500M-$1.5B, Large >$1.5B; 2004-2007: Small $100M-$1.5B, Medium $1.5B-$4B, Large >$4B; 2008-2011: Small $100M-$750M, Medium $750M-$3B, Large >$3B; 2012-2015: Small $100M-$1B, Medium $1B-$3B, Large >$3B; 2016-2019: Small $100M-$1.5B, Medium $1.5B-$4B, Large >$4B; 2020-2023: Small $100M-$3B, Medium $3B-$9B, Large >$9B. 2010 size bins were adjusted to factor in overall fundraising in a year: Small $100M-$500M, Medium $500M-$1,000M. Large $1bn+.

Key takeaway

A diversified portfolio of mid-market buyout funds has higher risk-adjusted returns than portfolios of small or large buyout funds.

While the majority of PE fundraising activity has focused on large and mega buyout funds, understanding the benefits of fund size diversification has been top of mind for our LPs as access to mid– and small–sized funds has required skill and an established, reliable network. This first chart in a new series shows the distribution of returns for hypothetical portfolios of small, medium, and large buyout funds. The results bring to light an interesting conclusion: the portfolio of mid-market buyout funds generates the highest risk-adjusted returns. A diversified portfolio of mid-market buyout funds has the potential to create a “Goldilocks” experience for investors — being able to capture the increased upside potential, while reducing the downside risk. The result is a better portfolio-level risk-adjusted return, quantified here with QIS’ preferred measure of risk-adjusted returns in private markets, the Sortino ratio, a concept we will explore in future posts.  

What is The Sortino Ratio?
The Sortino ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted returns calculated as the expected return in excess of a minimum acceptable return (MAR) divided by downside deviation. Downside deviation is the volatility of returns below the minimum acceptable return (MAR).Fund size bin definitions: 2000-2003: Small $100M-$500M, Medium $500M-$1.5B, Large >$1.5B; 2004-2007: Small $100M-$1.5B, Medium $1.5B-$4B, Large >$4B; 2008-2011: Small $100M-$750M, Medium $750M-$3B, Large >$3B; 2012-2015: Small $100M-$1B, Medium $1B-$3B, Large >$3B; 2016-2019: Small $100M-$1.5B, Medium $1.5B-$4B, Large >$4B; 2020-2023: Small $100M-$3B, Medium $3B-$9B, Large >$9B. 2010 size bins were adjusted to factor in overall fundraising in a year: Small $100M-$500M, Medium $500M-$1,000M. Large $1bn+.

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Footnotes
  1. The graphic and data above are based on a Monte Carlo simulation as of February 2024. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.


    Simulation parameters: Vintage years 2004 – 2020; 100% North America Buyout; 3 partnerships; 1-year allocation. Returns are net of underlying fund fees and carry and gross of HarbourVest management fees and carried interest. Other expenses borne by investors in the HarbourVest managed funds / accounts may reduce returns. 

Disclosure

This material is solely for informational purposes and should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.

Market analysis is not representative of any HarbourVest product. This presentation contains quantitative analysis of the global private equity industry derived from HarbourVest’s proprietary Quant Database. The proprietary Quant Database is a compilation of private equity partnership and transactional data drawn from internal and external sources. The proprietary Quant Database has been developed internally based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. This proprietary database is intended to be representative of the broader private equity market and does not reflect the investment performance of any HarbourVest investment or the experience of any investor in any HarbourVest fund.

Market simulations are not representative of any investor’s experience. Simulated results based on the database will be impacted by an uneven representation of funds with different vintage years, sizes, managers, geographic investment focus, and strategies, and a limited pool of investment cash flow data. Capital call and distribution data are based on historic partnership investment cash flows, but do not represent the actual experience of any investor. The actual pace and timing of cash flows is likely to be different and will be highly dependent on the underlying partnerships’ commitment pace, the types of investments made by the fund(s), market conditions, and terms of any relevant management agreements. Market conditions have a significant impact on investments and could materially change the results. All simulations, projections, and pro forma results are based entirely on the output from numerous mathematical simulations. These simulations are unconstrained by the fund size, market opportunity, and minimum commitment amount, and do not take into account the practical aspects of raising and managing a fund. The simulated hypothetical results should be used solely as a reference to understand certain characteristics of private equity markets and should not be relied upon to manage investments or make investment decisions. Simulated market performance is not indicative of the future returns of any HarbourVest or third party fund or account, and there can be no assurance that future funds or accounts will achieve comparable results. Investments in private funds involve significant risks, including loss of the entire investment.

Monte Carlo Simulations: These model (hypothetical) portfolios, if shown, are intended for illustrative purposes only. Performance information for each hypothetical portfolio utilized a Monte Carlo Simulation and are based on the actual cash flows of a proprietary data set that includes partnership investments made by Funds, along with partnership data from external sources. The capital calls and distribution data is based on historic partnership investment cash flows, but does not represent the actual experience of any investor or Fund. The results of the simulation are impacted by an uneven representation of funds with different vintage years, sizes, managers, and strategies, and a limited pool of investment cash flow data. The actual pace and timing of cash flows is likely to be different and will be highly dependent on the underlying partnerships’ commitment pace, the types of investments made by the Fund(s), market conditions, and terms of any relevant management agreements. The results presented are hypothetical and based entirely on the output from numerous mathematical simulations. The simulations are unconstrained by the fund size, market opportunity, and minimum commitment amount, and do not take into account the practical aspects of raising and managing a fund. The simulated hypothetical portfolio results should be used solely as a guide and should not be relied upon to manage your investments or make investment decisions.

HarbourVest Partners, LLC is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This material is solely for informational purposes and should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information. There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of HarbourVest.

Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, offer, recommendation, representation of suitability, legal advice, tax advice, or endorsement of any security or investment and should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in HarbourVest funds or in any other investment decision.

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Professional Investor Definition

“Professional Investor” under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (the “SFO”) and its subsidiary legislation) means:

(a) any recognised exchange company, recognised clearing house, recognised exchange controller or recognised investor compensation company, or any person authorised to provide automated trading services under section 95(2) of the SFO;

(b) any intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(c) any authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(d) any insurer authorized under the Insurance Ordinance (Cap. 41 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any other person carrying on insurance business and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(e) any scheme which-

(i) is a collective investment scheme authorised under section 104 of the SFO; or

(ii) is similarly constituted under the law of any place outside Hong Kong and, if it is regulated under the law of such place, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,

or any person by whom any such scheme is operated;

(f) any registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 485 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or its constituent fund as defined in section 2 of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes (General) Regulation (Cap. 485A of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any person who, in relation to any such registered scheme, is an approved trustee or service provider as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance or who is an investment manager of any such registered scheme or constituent fund;

(g) any scheme which-

(i) is a registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Occupational Retirement Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 426 of the Laws of Hong Kong); or

(ii) is an offshore scheme as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance and, if it is regulated under the law of the place in which it is domiciled, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,

or any person who, in relation to any such scheme, is an administrator as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance;

(h) any government (other than a municipal government authority), any institution which performs the functions of a central bank, or any multilateral agency;

(i) except for the purposes of Schedule 5 to the SFO, any corporation which is-

(i) a wholly owned subsidiary of-

(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(ii) a holding company which holds all the issued share capital of-

(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(iii) any other wholly owned subsidiary of a holding company referred to in subparagraph (ii); or

(j) any person of a class which is prescribed by rules made under section 397 of the SFO for the purposes of this paragraph as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of the provisions of the SFO, or to the extent that it is prescribed by rules so made as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of any provision of the SFO.

The first of such classes of additional “professional investor”, under the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Cap. 571D of the Laws of Hong Kong), are:

(k) any trust corporation (registered under Part VIII of the Trustee Ordinance (Cap. 29 of the Laws of Hong Kong) or the equivalent overseas) having been entrusted under the trust or trusts of which it acts as a trustee with total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date (see below) or-

(i) as stated in the most recent audited financial statement prepared-

(A) in respect of the trust corporation; and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date;

(ii) as ascertained by referring to one or more audited financial statements, each being the most recent audited financial statement, prepared-

(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trust; and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or

(iii) as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian (see below) statements issued to the trust corporation-

(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trusts; and

(B) within 12 months before the relevant date;

(l) any individual, either alone or with any of his associates (the spouse or any child) on a joint account, having a portfolio (see below) of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date or-

(i) as stated in a certificate issued by an auditor or a certified public accountant of the individual within 12 months before the relevant date; or

(ii)  as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian statements issued to the individual (either alone or with the associate) within 12 months before the relevant date;

(m) any corporation or partnership having-

(i) a portfolio of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency; or

(ii) total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency, at the relevant date, or as ascertained by referring to-

(iii) the most recent audited financial statement prepared-

(A) in respect of the corporation or partnership (as the case may be); and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or

(iv) one or more custodian statements issued to the corporation or partnership (as the case may be) within 12 months before the relevant date; and

(n) any corporation the sole business of which is to hold investments and which at the relevant date is wholly owned by any one or more of the following persons-

(i) a trust corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (k);

(ii) an individual who, either alone or with any of his or her associates on a joint account, falls within the description in paragraph (k);

(iii) a corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (m);

(iv) a partnership that falls within the description in paragraph (m).

For the purposes of paragraphs (k) to (n) above:

  • “relevant date” means the date on which the advertisement, invitation or document (made in respect of securities or structured products or interests in any collective investment scheme, which is intended to be disposed of only to professional investors), is issued, or possessed for the purposes of issue;
  • “custodian” means (i) a corporation whose principal business is to act as a securities custodian, or (ii) an authorised financial institution under the Banking Ordinance (Cap. 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong); an overseas bank; a corporation licensed under the SFO; or an overseas financial intermediary, whose business includes acting as a custodian; and
  • “portfolio” means a portfolio comprising any of the following (i) securities; (ii) certificates of deposit issued by an authorised financial institution under the Banking Ordinance (Cap, 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong) or an overseas bank; and (iii) except for trust corporations, cash held by a custodian.

Institutional Investor / Accredited Investor Definition

An institutional investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:

(a) the Singapore Government;

(b) a statutory board as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341 of the SFA, as prescribed in the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018;

(c) an entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by a central government of a country and whose principal activity is —

(i) to manage its own funds;

(ii) to manage the funds of the central government of that country (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country); or

(iii) to manage the funds (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country) of another entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of that country;

(d) any entity —

(i) that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of a country; and

(ii) whose funds are managed by an entity mentioned in sub‑paragraph (c);

(e) a bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;

(f) a merchant bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;

(g) a finance company that is licensed under the Finance Companies Act 1967;

(h) a company or co‑operative society that is licensed under the Insurance Act 1966 to carry on insurance business in Singapore;

(i) a company licensed under the Trust Companies Act 2005;

(j) a holder of a capital markets services licence;

(k) an approved exchange;

(l) a recognised market operator;

(m) an approved clearing house;

(n) a recognised clearing house;

(o) a licensed trade repository;

(p) a licensed foreign trade repository;

(q) an approved holding company;

(r) a Depository as defined in section 81SF of the SFA;

(s) a pension fund, or collective investment scheme, whether constituted in Singapore or elsewhere;

(t) a person (other than an individual) who carries on the business of dealing in bonds with accredited investors or expert investors;

(u) a designated market‑maker as defined in paragraph 1 of the Second Schedule to the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Regulations;

(v) a headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre which carries on a class of business involving fund management, where such business has been approved as a qualifying service in relation to that headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre under section 43D(2)(a) or 43E(2)(a) of the Income Tax Act 1947;

(w) a person who undertakes fund management activity (whether in Singapore or elsewhere) on behalf of not more than 30 qualified investors;

(x) a Service Company (as defined in regulation 2 of the Insurance (Lloyd’s Asia Scheme) Regulations) which carries on business as an agent of a member of Lloyd’s;

(y) a corporation the entire share capital of which is owned by an institutional investor or by persons all of whom are institutional investors;

(z) a partnership (other than a limited liability partnership within the meaning of the Limited Liability Partnerships Act 2005) in which each partner is an institutional investor.

An accredited investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:

(i)  an individual —

(A) whose net personal assets exceed in value $2 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;

(B) whose financial assets (net of any related liabilities) exceed in value $1 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount, where “financial asset” means —

(BA) a deposit as defined in section 4B of the Banking Act 1970;

(BB) an investment product as defined in section 2(1) of the Financial Advisers Act 2001; or

(BC) any other asset as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341; or

(C) whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than $300,000 (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;

(ii)  a corporation with net assets exceeding $10 million in value (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe, in place of the first amount, as determined by —

(A) the most recent audited balance sheet of the corporation; or

(B) where the corporation is not required to prepare audited accounts regularly, a balance sheet of the corporation certified by the corporation as giving a true and fair view of the state of affairs of the corporation as of the date of the balance sheet, which date must be within the preceding 12 months;

(iii) A trustee of a trust which all the beneficiaries are accredited investors; or

(iv) A trustee of a trust which the subject matter exceeds S$10 million; or

(v) An entity (other than a corporation) with net assets exceeding S$10 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) in value. “Entity” includes an unincorporated association, a partnership and the government of any state, but does not include a trust; or

(vi) A partnership (other than a limited liability partnership) in which every partner is an accredited investor; or

(vii) A corporation which the entire share capital is owned by one or more persons, all of whom are accredited investors.

Continuation solutions encompass a host of transaction types in which a GP secures interim liquidity and/or additional primary capital for their LPs in a strongly performing asset, or set of assets, that the GP will continue to own and control. Specifically, they include continuation funds, new funds created by GPs for the purpose of acquiring the asset(s) that continue to be managed by the same GP and capitalized by one or several secondary buyers, or equity recapitalizations involving a direct equity or structured equity investment into a portfolio company. These transactions can also include a parallel investment from the GP’s latest fund into that same pool of assets (a “cross-fund trade”).